I used ChatGPT to analyze its own future as OpenAI shifts to a for-profit model and key execs, like CTO Mira Murati, leave the company. This seemed like a good “Business Scenario Planning & Strategic Forecasting” use case for OpenAI’s latest model, ChatGPT o1-preview (seriously, who names these models?!)

o1-preview has better reasoning and math skills. It’s great for solving complex problems thinking through approaches step by step, like planning strategies.

So, I put it to the test. I asked it to evaluate future scenarios for OpenAI using a framework: criteria, ratings, weights, pros/cons, and reasons.

It took 27 seconds to think before giving its answer. Unlike earlier versions like ChatGPT 4o, o1-preview takes its time to give more thoughtful responses.

Below are the top three outcomes from each model. (See the ChatGPT conversations with analyses in the comments, https://lnkd.in/gGbWCEBR, including other scenarios evaluated like return to non-profit, full-profit shift, and internal collapse)

I was curious how o1-preview would react, so I shared GPT-4o’s analysis. It adjusted its top choices to align more closely with GPT-4o. I like that it can adjust based on new input.

Initially, I thought o1-preview’s improved reasoning made it the clear choice. But after seeing different results across multiple tests, I wonder if it lacks the consistency needed for strategic forecasting. Also, GPT-4o’s web browsing might give it an edge in staying current, especially in a space that’s moving fast.

I then asked Claude, Anthropic’s AI, since the ChatGPT models seemed to like Anthropic. Claude also leaned toward a merger with Anthropic, plus acquisitions by Microsoft and Google.

Looks like all three models prefer reuniting most original OpenAI execs, likely due to their focus on safety and reducing risks.

Of course, take all this with a grain of salt. These models have key limitations:

• ► Training data – o1-preview and GPT-4o are trained up to Oct 2023. Claude is trained up to Aug 2023. None have knowledge beyond these dates.

• ► No browsing – Of the models tested, only GPT-4o can browse the web.

• ► No specialized knowledge – None have insider knowledge or domain-specific expertise. (And neither do I in guiding them.)

• ► Lack of human context – Most importantly, they can’t account for human factors like desire, fear, trust, greed, and relationships, which influence real decisions.

This is just a demo of AI tackling complex problems using public data, not financial advice or predictions

Still, it shows how AI can help bring structure to decision-making. It gives us a starting point, but human judgment, expertise, and oversight are key.

In OpenAI’s case, I think the human factors will ultimately be the trump card.

What are your thoughts? Is a Microsoft acquisition inevitable for OpenAI? Or is there a better path to OpenAI’s mission of ensuring AGI benefits all of humanity?

#OpenAI #Microsoft #AI #AISafety #ChatGPTo1 #Anthropic GrowthPath Partners

Strategy and budget season is here. It’s time to ask the tough question: How solid is your product-market fit in today’s AI world?

Gain valuable insights in this week’s newsletter and AI-generated podcast (thanks to Google’s NotebookLM):

• Why PMF matters more than ever (it’s not just about AI)

• Using the Competitive Defensibility Analyzer, an AI tool to gauge your market position

• A step-by-step guide to assess where you stand

• Insights from strategic leaders, Christine / Chris Heckart, Bill Hobbib, and Carilu Dietrich

Keep in mind:

• Bad product fit + AI = faster path to failure

• Good product fit + AI = rocket fuel for growth

Subscribe here, https://lnkd.in/eg48-RXp

#ProductMarketFit #CustomGPT #AI #ChatGPT #CompetitiveAnalysis

Feeling the pressure to chase every opportunity? In today’s market, it’s tempting to try and grab everything that comes your way. But over the past two years, the most resilient companies have made a shift.

They’ve moved from “growth at all costs” to a more strategic, sustainable approach. It’s no longer about getting every lead, it’s about getting the right ones.

To stay focused, you need to be crystal clear on who to target and who to avoid. That’s why I put together this simple but powerful framework (thanks to AI) to help visualize it. Check out the example below.

This framework makes it easy to focus on the right customers:

• ► Green (center) – These are your best customers. Focus your time and energy here.
• ► Yellow (middle) – These are potential opportunities. Worth a closer look, but be selective.
• ► Red (outer) – Not the right fit. Avoid and save your resources.

For a deeper dive into how to evaluate and choose the best market segments using AI, I covered this topic here, https://lnkd.in/g3dwCDmh

Having a clear target strategy aligns your team, saves time, and ensures you’re not wasting effort on customers who aren’t profitable in the long run.

But how do you know if your targeting strategy needs work? Assess yourself on a scale of 1-5 (5 meaning you consistently do this all the time) for each of these 5 signs:

1. 1️⃣ You react to every competitor, even when it’s irrelevant. Not every competitor’s move matters. If you’re constantly responding, you might be chasing things that don’t serve your best-fit customers.
2. 2️⃣ Your marketing speaks to everyone, and connects with no one. Casting a wide net weakens your message. Focusing on a niche often leads to stronger, more meaningful engagement.
3. 3️⃣ You celebrate every new customer, regardless of fit or cost. More sales don’t always equal growth. Focus on customers that bring long-term value, not just short-term wins.
4. 4️⃣ Your star salespeople succeed by ignoring your “ideal customer” guidelines. When top performers win by breaking rules, it’s time to rethink those rules.
5. 5️⃣ Your product is guided by the loudest customers, not the best ones. Giving in to squeaky wheels, even if they’re not ideal customers, shows you’ve lost sight of who really matters.

If you scored 15 or higher, you might need to reconsider your approach.

Are you and your team aligned on who falls into your green, yellow, and red zones? How do you avoid the trap of chasing shiny objects? Let me know your thoughts below.

#Segmentation #CustomerTargeting #AI #Profitability #Claude GrowthPath Partners

I’m honored to be named a finalist for Fractional/Advisor of the Year at the GTM Awards, alongside impressive colleagues Rachel Johnson, Sherri Sklar, and Leslie Venetz.

This recognition from Pavilion and TrustRadius reflects the collaborative efforts of many talented professionals I’ve had the privilege to work with in the B2B tech space.

The GTM Awards ceremony will take place on October 15th at #GTM2024 in Austin, celebrating innovation and achievement across our industry. It’s exciting to see all the great work being recognized.

Grateful for this acknowledgment and inspired by the continued growth and evolution in B2B tech.

Congratulations to all finalists across all categories, https://lnkd.in/gjwuf2qV!

#GTMAwards #B2BTech #Advisor #FractionalCMO #B2BMarketing